CPT

Camden Property Trust

Real EstateREIT - ResidentialNASDAQ

$106.56

+$0.39 (0.37%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$115.20

Upside+8.11%

Signal4.87

Market Cap$10.6B

52W Range$96.53–$121.33

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$45.42

Current Price$96.96

Upside / Down-53.2%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)98.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

14.9%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

19.0%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Camden Property Trust Sun Belt apartment REIT; occupancy stable; new supply peaking.

Bear Case

Sun Belt supply wave in 2024-25; rent growth normalization; interest rate sensitivity.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Camden Property Trust FY2025 10-K: Stabilized Portfolio with Modest Growth in Tight Supply Environment

CPT delivered modest FY2025: same store NOI +0.3%, revenue +0.8%, with cost inflation 1.7%. Portfolio stable at 95% occupancy on .6B revenue base. Acquired 4 properties (+1,469 units), disposed 5 (-.9...