No conviction changes recorded
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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
27.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
27.8%/yr
±5.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
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Sign in to unlockGPU-as-a-Service with $55B contracted backlog and ~300% revenue growth. First NVIDIA Rubin deployer. AI infrastructure secular demand. At 8.5x 2026 revenue, valuation modest for growth profile.
$10B+ debt with $4.2B maturity wall. Hyperscalers entering market at -40% GPU rates. Still net-loss. Fragile debt structure could create dilution or restructuring risk in a credit crunch.
Microsoft/AWS announces competing GPU rental at scale, NVIDIA partnership terms change, credit market tightening makes refinancing prohibitive, contract cancellations
Updated Mar 25
No new filings. 10-K already fully analyzed 2026-04-08. Conviction 5/10 unchanged. Next read: Q1 2026 10-Q ~May 2026.
Revenue +168% to $5.1B; RPO explodes to $60.7B (+302%); OCF positive $3.1B but interest expense $1.2B and 94% leverage; pivoting to AI platform via W&B acquisition
CRWV IPO at $40, now ~$87 (down 55% from $187 high). $66B backlog vs $44B market cap. 140% revenue growth guided FY2026. Risk: $29.8B debt, 0.46 current ratio, potential Microsoft concentration. NVIDI...
CRWV at 83: 3.6x 2026E rev, 55.6B backlog, 300% growth. Bull/NVIDIA partnership/AI infra first-mover. Bear/4.2B debt wall/hyperscaler price war. Conviction 5 until 10-K confirms refinancing path.