Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
77.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
13.2%/yr
±8.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
28.1%/yr
±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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CVNA at profitable scale inflection post-2023 recovery. Strong operational execution, secured market access for finance receivables. Margin expansion potential if AFR volumes/pricing sustain. Key risk...