CVNA

Carvana Co.
Consumer CyclicalAuto & Truck DealershipsNASDAQ
$73
+$9.76 (13.37%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$425.09
Upside+482.32%
Signal0
Market Cap$68.7B
52W Range$171.78–$486.89
Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$397.31
Current Price$302.04
Upside / Down+31.5%
P(Undervalued)77.3%
P(20%+ Up)60.4%
P(15%+ Down)12.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

77.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

13.2%/yr

±8.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

28.1%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars.

Trailing P/E36.9x
Forward P/E29.1x
P/S3.4x
EPS (TTM)$8.44
Analyst Target$425.09
Analyst Upside482.3%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
CVNA 2025 10-K: Operational Scale & Profitability Inflection

CVNA at profitable scale inflection post-2023 recovery. Strong operational execution, secured market access for finance receivables. Margin expansion potential if AFR volumes/pricing sustain. Key risk...