CVX

Chevron Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas IntegratedNASDAQ

$182.46

-$8.17 (-4.48%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$203.54

Upside+23.20%

Signal1.87

Market Cap$375.6B

52W Range$132.04–$214.71

Next EarningsMay 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:17 AM6→5conviction-rescore

Mar 10, 2026, 6:02 PM7→6sec-read

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$131.77

Current Price$211.15

Upside / Down-37.6%

P(Undervalued)12.2%

P(20%+ Up)4.4%

P(15%+ Down)76.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

12.2% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

7.5%/yr

±10.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

8.1%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 10

Conviction: unchanged

CVX 10-K FY2025: Record Production Meets Oil Price Headwinds — Guyana Long-Term Moat Intact

CVX FY2025: Record 3.7M BOE/day production (+12% YoY). Q4 4.05M BOED (+21%) including full Hess ramp. Permian hit 1M BOE/day. 10.6B BOE reserves (+8%), 158% replacement ratio. Q4 adj EPS $1.52 vs $2.0...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

CVX 10-K FY2025: Hess Closes, Guyana Goes Live, Permian Hits 1M BOE/Day

CVX FY2025 was a year of transformative scale-up. The Hess acquisition closed in July 2025, adding the Bakken, Gulf of America assets, and critically a 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block — one of th...