CW

Curtiss-Wright Corporation

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$747.61

+$21.32 (2.85%)today

Conviction

8/ 10

Fair Value$717.43

Upside-4.04%

Signal0

Market Cap$26.8B

52W Range$311.12–$748.14

Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$259.51

Current Price$663.56

Upside / Down-60.9%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

31.7%/yr

±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

27.6%/yr

±3.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Curtiss-Wright: defense electronics and industrial/power. Iran war defense spending tailwind. Nuclear power systems for naval and commercial. Tech +4, above both MAs, momentum +0.230.

Bear Case

Smaller defense player vs BWXT/LMT. Industrial segment exposed to manufacturing slowdown. Less diversified than peers.

Research Feed

sec_10kApr 10

Conviction: unchanged

CW FY2025 10-K: Record Revenue +12%, Naval+Nuclear Drives 18% Backlog Growth

FY2025: Revenue +12% to $3.50B, ops income +20% to $633M, record backlog $4.08B (+18%). Naval & Power +18%, nuclear I&C = secular tailwind. Clean balance sheet, aggressive buybacks. Raising conviction...

analysisMar 9

Conviction: unchanged

CW: Curtiss-Wright — Mission-Critical Defense with Nuclear Tailwinds

High-quality defense/nuclear compounder. FY2025 record results. 2026 guidance strong ($14.93 EPS midpoint). Valuation stretched at ~$706 — priced for 2030 earnings. Strong watchlist candidate; wait fo...