DECK

Deckers Outdoor Corporation

Consumer CyclicalFootwear & AccessoriesNASDAQ

$113.85

+$12.46 (10.94%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$128.52

Upside+12.89%

Signal7.73

Market Cap$15.7B

52W Range$78.91–$133.43

Next EarningsMay 21

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 28, 2026, 4:06 AM7→6macro-brief

Mar 18, 2026, 11:17 AM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$114.13

Current Price$94.05

Upside / Down+21.4%

P(Undervalued)87.1%

P(20%+ Up)52.8%

P(15%+ Down)1.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

87.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

7.0%/yr

±4.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-0.1%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

HOKA brand gaining market share vs Nike/Adidas at premium price point. UGG generates stable cash flow. Mean reversion from oversold (RSI 29.4) with entry near lower Bollinger at $94. Target 20-day MA ~$105-110.

Bear Case

Tariff headwinds on Vietnam/China manufacturing exposure. Consumer discretionary vulnerable in Risk-Off macro. May need promo spend to maintain HOKA volumes. No earnings until May 21.

Thesis Breakers

HOKA volume growth turns negative; tariff costs force margin guidance cut; RSI closes back below 25 after brief recovery

Updated Mar 27

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 FY2026: HOKA Growth Offset by Tariff Headwinds & Margin Compression

DECK growth remains healthy (9.8%) driven by HOKA momentum (16% growth) and international expansion (27% growth), but tariff headwinds and promotional activity compressed gross margin 50bps. UGG stabl...