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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
97.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-5.5%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
4.5%/yr
±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockTrade-down thesis in stagflation: lower-income consumer resilient when wallets tighten. RSI 24.1 extreme oversold, EPS Q4 beat. Shrink improving, margins expanding. Mean reversion from technical extreme to 20-day MA = +11.7% from here.
Cautious 2026 guidance spooked market for a reason — management sees macro headwinds. Dollar stores get hit by tariff-driven product cost inflation (heavily imported inventory). DG-specific execution risk: shrink history, merchandise mix concerns.
20-day MA fails to hold as resistance, Q1 2026 guidance miss, shrink re-accelerates
Updated Mar 20
FY2025 turnaround real (shrink -68bps, margins +, FCF +21%), but macro headwinds (SNAP work requirement, food inflation, low-income stress) prevent upside surprise. Guidance conservative. Store growth...
UBS maintained Buy on DG March 16. Dollar General rolling out new store format in 2026. Q4 earnings review shows DG led non-discretionary retail sector. Operational momentum building — positive for ex...
DG at 146.55, down 3.3% today and 40% from peak. Turnaround progressing (SSS 2.5%, shrink improving) but 15% global tariff surcharge hits China-sourced SKU COGS meaningfully. Q4 FY2025 earnings March ...
DG delivering margin expansion (100+ bps) driven by shrink improvement + markup power despite consumer pressure. SSS of 2.5% suggests lower-income consumer resilient but pressured. Capital allocation ...