DHI

D.R. Horton, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ

$147.09

+$3.01 (2.05%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$158.71

Upside+7.90%

Signal0

Market Cap$39.9B

52W Range$110.44–$184.55

Next EarningsApr 21

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$101.29

Current Price$134.19

Upside / Down-24.5%

P(Undervalued)11.6%

P(20%+ Up)1.6%

P(15%+ Down)68.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

11.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

7.3%/yr

±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

4.8%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

D.R.

Trailing P/E12.5x

Forward P/E11.1x

P/S1.2x

EPS (TTM)$10.99

Analyst Target$158.71

Analyst Upside7.9%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

DHI Q1 FY2026: Margin Compression, Affordability Crisis Deepening

DHI Q1 FY2026: Pre-tax income -28% YoY to M; home sales margin compressed 230 bps to 20.4%. Affordability crisis driving incentive escalation and price declines despite stable order volume. Earnings p...