DOV

Dover Corporation

IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ

$211.36

+$3.65 (1.73%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$231.82

Upside+9.68%

Signal5.81

Market Cap$29.3B

52W Range$148.31–$237.54

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$92.24

Current Price$206.60

Upside / Down-55.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

21.8%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

20.8%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Dover Corporation industrial diversification; pumps/dispensing/refrigeration; earnings quality.

Bear Case

Industrial capex cycle exposure; energy transition timing; integration of acquisitions.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Dover 2025 10-K: Mixed Organic Growth Offset by Margin Expansion & M&A Momentum

Diversified industrial manufacturer executing operational excellence playbook; margin expansion offsetting near-term growth headwinds. Strong M&A track record, fortress balance sheet, and secular posi...