DOW

Dow Inc.

Basic MaterialsChemicalsNASDAQ

$33.75

-$2.03 (-6.01%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$37.44

Upside+10.93%

Signal5.46

Market Cap$28.1B

52W Range$20.40–$42.74

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:17 AM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$100.75

Current Price$40.82

Upside / Down+146.8%

P(Undervalued)96.8%

P(20%+ Up)93.6%

P(15%+ Down)1.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

96.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.2%/yr

±5.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-14.8%/yr

±2.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

DOW 2025 10-K: Strategic Restructuring Amid Macro Headwinds, Offset by Circularity Growth

DOW reported B in sales for 2025 with three operating segments. FY2025 saw significant impairments (M goodwill in Polyurethanes, M asset impairment in Latin America) signaling regional challenges. Com...