DOW: Lean Avoid. Trading above analyst consensus target ($35 target vs $37 price). Chemicals in downcycle, near-zero earnings (no PE). DCF P(above)=97.8% likely based on normalized cycle earnings that may not materialize near-term. Tariff/trade war exposure on feedstock costs.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
96.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-6.2%/yr
±5.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-14.8%/yr
±2.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
DOW reported B in sales for 2025 with three operating segments. FY2025 saw significant impairments (M goodwill in Polyurethanes, M asset impairment in Latin America) signaling regional challenges. Com...