DPZ

Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$310.58

-$5.78 (-1.86%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$474.94

Upside+52.92%

Signal37.04

Market Cap$12.4B

52W Range$346.31–$499.08

Next EarningsApr 27

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:17 AM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$147.87

Current Price$348.14

Upside / Down-57.5%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)99.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.5%/yr

±6.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

17.1%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Domino's Pizza franchise royalties; digital/tech moat; international unit growth.

Bear Case

Consumer spending pressure on delivery; labor/food cost inflation at franchisees; competition.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

DPZ FY2025 10-K: Steady Comps, Leverage Reality

Domino's delivered +3% U.S. comps and +1.9% intl comps ex-FX. Asset-light franchise model drives consistent royalty streams and strong FCF. Debt of .82B is material but manageable given recurring cash...