DRI

Darden Restaurants, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$203.91

+$7.08 (3.47%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$225.85

Upside+10.76%

Signal6.46

Market Cap$22.3B

52W Range$169–$228.27

Next EarningsMar 19

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$241.63

Current Price$192.49

Upside / Down+25.5%

P(Undervalued)74.5%

P(20%+ Up)55.6%

P(15%+ Down)14.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

74.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

1.2%/yr

±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

6.6%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

DRI Q2 FY2026: Revenue Growth Masks Margin Compression in Steakhouse/Fine Dining

DRI delivered solid sales growth (+8.9% YoY, +4.5% same-restaurant) driven by Olive Garden and strong pricing. However, margin profile deteriorated: LongHorn Steakhouse pricing 320bps BELOW inflation ...