DVA

DaVita Inc.

HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNASDAQ

$194.36

-$4.21 (-2.16%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$151.71

Upside-21.94%

Signal0

Market Cap$10.0B

52W Range$101–$159.42

Next EarningsMay 4

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 7:04 PM5→6conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$498.21

Current Price$154.43

Upside / Down+222.6%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-8.2%/yr

±1.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.5%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

DaVita dialysis; ESCOs pharmacy integration; Medicaid reimbursement stable.

Bear Case

Reimbursement rate risk; home dialysis competition from NxStage; patient volume normalization.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

DaVita FY2025: Dialysis Volume Decelerating, Margins Pressured by Labor

DaVita's 2025 10-K reveals a mature, volume-constrained dialysis business. ESRD patient growth <1%, offset by labor cost inflation. Commercial payor segment (highest margin) under negotiation pressure...