DaVita dialysis — DCF P(above)=100% with FV=$502 vs old target $152. Strong argument for undervaluation: dialysis is non-discretionary, Buffett owns it, and government reimbursement provides floor. Old target $152 appears to be a prior stop or entry. DCF strongly supportive. Upgrade from 5 to 6: compelling fundamentals but regulatory reimbursement risk and no near-term catalyst identified yet.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-8.2%/yr
±1.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
3.5%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
DaVita's 2025 10-K reveals a mature, volume-constrained dialysis business. ESRD patient growth <1%, offset by labor cost inflation. Commercial payor segment (highest margin) under negotiation pressure...