FY2025 10-K read confirms operational superiority: 307 MMBoe production (+14%), $3.1B FCF at avg $62.77 WTI, 193% reserve replacement at $6/Boe F&D, net debt/EBITDA <1x. Coterra merger (Feb 1, 2026, S-4 filed Mar 12) adds $1B pretax synergy target by YE2027 — credible given 85% of standalone $1B optimization delivered in <1 year. Post-merger: 31% dividend hike + $5B+ buyback. At $46.22, stock above prior $40-45 FV but 10.8% FCF yield + synergy optionality justifies 7. Entry target $42-44 on pullback; stop $36.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
82.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-3.4%/yr
±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
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