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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
82.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-3.4%/yr
±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
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Sign in to unlockQuality E&P with fixed+variable dividend model, Delaware Basin scale, low breakeven ~40 WTI, strong FCF yield.
Oil decline hits FCF; nat gas exposure; tariff macro uncertainty reduces energy demand.
WTI sustained below 50, premium acquisition destroying value, basin decline rates accelerating
Updated Apr 8
DVN at $52 near 52-wk high has priced in most Coterra upside. Solid FCF machine (~9.5% yield) but oil headwinds persist, buybacks suspended, and deal risk is real. Gas tailwind (Henry Hub +51% YoY, LN...
DVN generated .7B net earnings and .7B operating cash flow in 2025, supported by 14% production growth post-Grayson Mill acquisition. However, oil prices declined 14% YoY (.87 vs .79 WTI) and gas real...
FY2025 10-K re-analysis. Production +14% YoY to 840 MBoe/d, OCF .7B, FCF ~.1B. Oil margin compression (-16% YoY) offset by gas price surge (+51% Henry Hub). Balance sheet strong: 24.8% debt-to-cap, .4...
FY2025 validates Devon as a disciplined E&P with fortress balance sheet and strong FCF generation, but margin compression (-16% YoY) from → WTI offsets production volume gains. Coterra merger (expecte...
Devon delivered 14% production growth and $3.1B FCF despite 14% oil price decline, demonstrating operational excellence and capital discipline. Coterra merger (announced Feb 2026, closing 2H2026) adds...
FY2025 showed strong volume growth (+14% to 840 MBoe/d) absorbing the Grayson Mill Williston Basin acquisition, but oil price compression (-14% YoY WTI) squeezed field margins from .63 to .97/Boe. OCF...
10-K validates fortress balance sheet (24.8% debt-to-cap, IG ratings), genuine cost discipline (M/B optimization realized), and balanced capital allocation (.7B shareholder returns + deleveraging). Pr...
DVN 10-K validates operational excellence: fortress balance sheet (24.8% debt-to-cap, investment-grade), cost discipline on track ($850M of $1B optimization plan achieved), and strong production growt...
DVN FY2025 10-K confirms a well-run E&P with 840 MBoe/d production (+14% YoY), .7B operating cash flow, and .1B FCF on a 24.8% debt-to-cap investment-grade balance sheet. Margin compression (.97/Boe v...
DVN FY2025 10-K confirms fortress balance sheet (24.8% debt-to-cap), $850M business optimization achieved (85% of $1B target), and strong operational metrics (307 MMBoe/yr production, $24.97/Boe field...
DVN 2025 10-K reveals a fortress-balance-sheet, capital-efficient E&P company trading at a discount to intrinsic value. Production up 14% YoY (Grayson integration), margins remain industry-leading (.9...
DVN 10-K 2025: Capital discipline-focused independent E&P with strong FCF generation (.7B OCF, .1B FCF). Grayson Mill integration on track, B business optimization plan 85% achieved. Coterra merger (a...
DVN delivered .7B operating cash flow on 14% production growth (Grayson Mill + organic), but net earnings fell 7% YoY due to 14% oil price decline to .87/Bbl. Debt-to-cap 24.8% remains fortress-like p...
DVN delivered 14% production growth (737→840 MBoe/d) from Grayson Mill acquisition, but earnings down 9% due to 14% oil price decline. Generated .1B FCF with 11% yield; 24.8% net debt-to-cap ratio mai...
FY2025 confirms operational superiority: 307 MMBoe production (+14% YoY), $3.1B FCF, 193% reserve replacement at $6/Boe F&D. Coterra merger (Feb 1, 2026) adds $1B synergy target by YE2027, 31% dividen...
Devon Energy: Large-cap independent with fortress balance sheet, disciplined capital, and scale from Grayson acquisition. Merger with Coterra pending Q2 2026 creates near-term uncertainty but unlocks ...