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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
6.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
19.0%/yr
±4.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
11.5%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Sign in to unlockFDA just cleared Smart Basal — first CGM-integrated insulin dosing optimizer for type 2 diabetes, expanding TAM from 10M type 1 patients to 100M+ type 2. G7 sensor tech leads the market on accuracy and wear time. RSI 34 near oversold — technical setup for a bounce as ATTD conference catalyzes awareness.
Stock has been a persistent underperformer, struggling to hold gains despite positive catalysts. GLP-1 overhang remains — market fears Ozempic/Mounjaro reduce the diabetic population needing CGMs. Competitive pressure from Abbott's Libre mounting on price. Enhanced signal 2.26 is mid-pack, not compelling enough to warrant adding.
GLP-1 drugs proven to reduce CGM demand, Abbott Libre taking share below 50%, Smart Basal commercial launch delays
Updated Mar 11
FDA clearance for Smart Basal extends DXCM's TAM into type 2 diabetes basal insulin management, pairing CGM data with dosing guidance. Thesis-accretive: T2D is 10x the T1D market and historically unde...
Leadership stability confirmed with Sayer returning to Executive Chairman role. Presented at Raymond James conference. High IV in options near March 20 expiry - possible catalyst expected by market.
DXCM FY25 10-K: 16% rev growth to 4.66B, strong margin expansion, 2B liquidity. G7 15 Day/Stelo on track. Key risks: 2028 Medicare bidding cliff, FDA warning letter. Fair value 88-95 vs 73 current.
DXCM 10-K 2025: G7 15Day clinical leadership + Stelo OTC TAM expansion offset by 2028 Medicare competitive bidding risk and March 2025 FDA warning letter. Bull case: superior tech, ecosystem lock-in, ...