Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
20.4%/yr
±6.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
10.2%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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EA Q3 FY2026: Revenue stalled (+1% YoY despite Battlefield 6), live services organic decline -3% 9M, gross margin compressed 200 bps. Merger at /share creating governance vacuum. Estimated Offering Pe...