EFX

Equifax Inc.

IndustrialsConsulting ServicesNASDAQ

$165.79

+$2.73 (1.65%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$237.30

Upside+43.13%

Signal25.88

Market Cap$22.1B

52W Range$166.02–$281.03

Next EarningsApr 21

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 26, 2026, 4:05 AM7→6macro-brief

Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 AM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$47.38

Current Price$171.85

Upside / Down-72.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

29.3%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

21.4%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Housing recovery plays directly into mortgage origination volumes — FICO score demand structurally tied to refi/purchase activity. April 21 earnings catalyst with RSI recovering from deeply oversold 28. 35-share mean reversion position entered at lower BB.

Bear Case

DCF FV showing major divergence signal. Mortgage activity slower than expected if rates stay higher-for-longer. EFX valuation at current not obviously cheap on fundamentals.

Thesis Breakers

RSI crosses back below 25 (momentum failure), housing starts data deterioration, April earnings miss with lowered guidance

Updated Mar 25

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

EFX FY2025 10-K: Cloud Transformation & Data Moat Under Execution

EFX cloud transformation progressing; data moat intact. Mortgage headwind, CFPB scrutiny, execution risk. Valuation fair at current levels; execution > multiple expansion.