Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
29.3%/yr
±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
21.4%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Housing recovery plays directly into mortgage origination volumes — FICO score demand structurally tied to refi/purchase activity. April 21 earnings catalyst with RSI recovering from deeply oversold 28. 35-share mean reversion position entered at lower BB.
DCF FV showing major divergence signal. Mortgage activity slower than expected if rates stay higher-for-longer. EFX valuation at current not obviously cheap on fundamentals.
RSI crosses back below 25 (momentum failure), housing starts data deterioration, April earnings miss with lowered guidance
Updated Mar 25
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