EIX

EIX: Lean Avoid. 2% analyst upside essentially flat. Edison International faces ongoing California wildfire liability — thesis-breaking risk. PE=6x looks cheap but masks catastrophic tail risk. Near 52wk highs. DCF P(above)=38.9% moderate. Not investable given unquantifiable liability exposure.

Weekly re-eval Mar 8. EIX at $71.76, down -4.0% on Mar 6. Edison International has SIGNIFICANT LA wildfire exposure from January 2025 fires (~$40B industry losses). EIX faces litigation risk and potential rate recovery challenges from CPUC. Iran war delays Fed rate cuts (higher oil = inflation), which is negative for utilities. However, EIX did NOT have MAJOR direct exposure given early California exit from homeowners. Data center load growth in California is real (SCE territory). REDUCE conviction 7→6 due to: wildfire liability overhang, rate cut delay, and better alternatives in utilities (AEE at higher quality). Hold on watchlist but not initiating new position until wildfire liability clarified.