EL

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

Consumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsNASDAQ

$88.95

+$11.32 (12.72%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$102.73

Upside+15.49%

Signal0

Market Cap$25.1B

52W Range$48.37–$121.64

Next EarningsMay 1

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$47.16

Current Price$67.23

Upside / Down-29.9%

P(Undervalued)7.5%

P(20%+ Up)0.8%

P(15%+ Down)77.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

7.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

4.5%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

24.8%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

Forward P/E22.9x

P/S1.7x

EPS (TTM)-$0.51

Analyst Target$102.73

Analyst Upside15.5%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

EL Q2 FY2026: Margin Recovery + Impairment Headwind

Q2 FY2026 shows margin recovery from PRGP + Mainland China strength (+11%), but makeup segment stalling (-1% CC) and tariff headwinds create offset. FY2025 impairments (M) create tough YoY comp, but u...