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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
13.9%/yr
±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
19.5%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockBest-in-class shale operator with $40/bbl breakeven — profitable at almost any oil price. Encino acquisition locks in 675k Utica acres with better margins than initial estimates. Production up 16% YoY to 450 MMBoe. 2026 capex plan is lighter ($5.3-6.7B vs $6.6B) = FCF expansion. Natural gas revenue +39% provides diversification from oil price volatility.
Iran de-escalation removed the near-term oil price catalyst (why we sold). Oil at $85 is elevated but could normalize to $70s if ceasefire holds. Prior position was stopped out at -$26 — entry timing discipline matters even with strong thesis. Capex plan assumes continued gas price strength which isn't guaranteed.
WTI sustained below $60, natural gas below $2.50, Encino integration delays, Iran ceasefire driving oil below $75
Updated Mar 11
EOG flashed a bullish golden cross (50dma above 200dma). Paul Tudor Jones and Israel Englander both disclosed EOG positions. Capital International sold 62% of stake (offsetting factor). Positive techn...
FY2025 10-K confirms EOG executed a major strategic pivot via the 5.7B Encino Utica acquisition, delivering 16% YoY production growth to 450 MMBoe. Net income declined 22% to 5.0B on oil price pressur...
2025 10-K confirms the FCF inflection thesis. Encino acquisition (.7B, 675k Utica acres) expands EOG's inventory. Production +16% YoY to 449.8 MMBoe. Oil -15% hurt revenue, but gas +39% partially offs...
EOG's 2025 10-K confirms the Encino acquisition transformed the production profile (+16% YoY to 450 MMBoe), while 2026 capex collapses from $13.6B to $6.3-6.7B — setting up the largest FCF expansion i...
Encino transforms EOG into true integrated Permian/Appalachian platform. Prod +16% reserves, but oil price down 15% compressed 2025 earnings. Debt elevated (21% cap) but normalized 2026 capex ($6.3-6....
FY2025: Revenue .6B (-5%), adj net income .5B (.16/share), FCF .7B. Encino acquisition (Aug 2025) added 1.1M Utica acres, cost .5B funded by debt — net debt now .54B vs prior net cash. Production +16%...
EOG completed .7B Encino acquisition (Aug 2025) adding 675k Utica acres and 30% natural gas growth. FY2025 net income .0B (down 22% YoY) due to crude -15% price offset by gas +39%. Reserves +766 MMBoe...