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100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-6.4%/yr
±3.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-5.7%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Premium growth 8.9% to B, but new business -17.8%, retention 88.4% down from 90.4%. Exchange AM Best downgraded A+→A Sept 2025. Net income -6.8% despite premium growth. Investment income +22.4%. Thesi...