ERIE

Erie Indemnity Company
Financial ServicesInsurance BrokersNASDAQ
$213.07
-$11.05 (-5.19%)today
Conviction
4/ 10
Fair Value$0
Upside0.00%
Signal0
Market Cap$13.2B
52W Range$233.82–$434
Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:06 PM54conviction-rescore
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$570.51
Current Price$240.87
Upside / Down+136.9%
P(Undervalued)100.0%
P(20%+ Up)100.0%
P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.4%/yr

±3.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-5.7%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4
Conviction: unchanged
FY2025 10-K: Premium Growth + AM Best Downgrade Signal Inflection Risk

Premium growth 8.9% to B, but new business -17.8%, retention 88.4% down from 90.4%. Exchange AM Best downgraded A+→A Sept 2025. Net income -6.8% despite premium growth. Investment income +22.4%. Thesi...