DCF P(above)=2.4%, FV=$158 vs price $246.7 — stock trading 56% above DCF fair value. Below 200dma. Analyst target $279 barely above current. West Coast multifamily REIT, high rates compress cap rates. DCF strongly suggests overvalued. No compelling reason to hold at this valuation.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
4.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
12.1%/yr
±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
6.4%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Revenue growth modest at 4.1% YoY despite 5.5% same-property NOI growth. Margin pressure evident. Portfolio concentrated West Coast (CA/WA) in tight supply-constrained markets. Development pipeline 54...