ESS

Essex Property Trust, Inc.

Real EstateREIT - ResidentialNASDAQ

$272.64

-$1.16 (-0.42%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$279

Upside+2.33%

Signal0.93

Market Cap$17.2B

52W Range$238.46–$294.09

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:06 PM5→4conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$161.45

Current Price$239.61

Upside / Down-32.6%

P(Undervalued)4.4%

P(20%+ Up)0.2%

P(15%+ Down)84.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

4.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

12.1%/yr

±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

6.4%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Essex Property West Coast apartment REIT; tech sector employment recovery tailwind; supply-constrained markets.

Bear Case

Tech layoffs reducing Bay Area/Seattle demand; affordability driving outmigration; supply additions.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

ESS FY2025 10-K: Operational strength with macro headwinds

Revenue growth modest at 4.1% YoY despite 5.5% same-property NOI growth. Margin pressure evident. Portfolio concentrated West Coast (CA/WA) in tight supply-constrained markets. Development pipeline 54...