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3.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
10.7%/yr
±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
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LLPS now operational with 4 large customers signed. Bull case validated. 2026 +10.7% EPS growth credible. Bear case risk: capex execution, debt levels, interest coverage. Holding 7/10 conviction—prove...
FY2025 10-K confirms thesis: LLPS approved (KCC+MPSC Nov 2025), 1,900MW data center ESAs signed Feb 2026, .6B 2026-2030 capex. But financials show strain: adj EPS barely grew (.81→.83), GAAP EPS decli...
FY2025 adj EPS $3.83 vs $3.81. GAAP EPS $3.66 vs $3.79 due to clean energy investment losses (being disposed). Revenue +2% to $5.96B. 5-year capex plan of $21.6B including $9.3B new generation. Critic...
Evergy delivering steady earnings with rate case victories supporting revenue growth. Dividend sustainability remains strong. Key risks: regulatory headwinds, capex intensity, rising interest rates on...