Downgraded from 7 to 5. Analyst consensus upside only 6%. DCF P(above current) only 3.5%. Both signals say overvalued or at fair value. Regulated utility with minimal growth. No edge.
Raising from 6→7. The data center LLPS framework is a structural step-change: 1,900 MWs of ESAs signed in Feb 2026 alone, with LLPS plans providing strong cost recovery protections (80% min bill, termination fees, collateral). Missouri SB 4 CWIP law removes earnings lag on $9.3B new gas generation investment. Wildfire cap in Kansas reduces tail risk. These regulatory wins go beyond routine rate cases. Headwinds real but manageable: $1.4B convertible due 2027, $21.6B capex needs equity ($3.3B) and debt. Adj EPS flat in 2025 despite two rate wins is mildly disappointing — cost inflation a persistent drag. Stock at 17.7x adj earnings not cheap but supported by accelerating rate base growth. Target $75-78 (18.5-19x $4.00+ adj EPS as data center ramp kicks in 2027+). Stop around $58.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
3.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
10.7%/yr
±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
LLPS now operational with 4 large customers signed. Bull case validated. 2026 +10.7% EPS growth credible. Bear case risk: capex execution, debt levels, interest coverage. Holding 7/10 conviction—prove...
FY2025 10-K confirms thesis: LLPS approved (KCC+MPSC Nov 2025), 1,900MW data center ESAs signed Feb 2026, .6B 2026-2030 capex. But financials show strain: adj EPS barely grew (.81→.83), GAAP EPS decli...
FY2025 adj EPS $3.83 vs $3.81. GAAP EPS $3.66 vs $3.79 due to clean energy investment losses (being disposed). Revenue +2% to $5.96B. 5-year capex plan of $21.6B including $9.3B new generation. Critic...
Evergy delivering steady earnings with rate case victories supporting revenue growth. Dividend sustainability remains strong. Key risks: regulatory headwinds, capex intensity, rising interest rates on...