EXE: Lean Buy. DCF P(above)=59.1% supportive. Analyst target $131 (+24%). Near 52wk lows at $105. Energy infrastructure/midstream with more predictable cash flows than E&P. Missing: still below 200dma, execution on growth projects uncertain. Need to see one confirming quarter.
First 10-K read. Solid fundamentals: 4.6B cash from ops, 1.2B debt paydown, 865M shareholder returns. PV-10 of 19.4B vs 26B market cap reasonable at current gas prices. S&P 500 inclusion brings passive flows. Risk is nat gas price volatility. No near-term catalyst identified.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
54.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
17.4%/yr
±10.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-4.0%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
First full year as Expand Energy post-Southwestern merger. Production nearly doubled to 2,622 Bcfe. Cash from ops $4.6B. Debt reduced $1.2B to ~$5B. Returned $865M to shareholders. Joined S&P 500. PV-...
Largest US independent NG producer post-CHK-SWN merger. Strong FY2025 execution: production +91%, price +52%, debt -.2B, reserves +91%. Reserve base PV-10 .4B vs implied market cap suggests meaningful...