EXE

Expand Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas E&PNASDAQ

$92.98

-$4.39 (-4.72%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$132.67

Upside+42.68%

Signal29.88

Market Cap$23.1B

52W Range$91.01–$126.62

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 AM6→7conviction-rescore

Mar 4, 2026, 5:06 AM7→6sec-read

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 61% valid

Fair Value$126.49

Current Price$113.50

Upside / Down+11.4%

P(Undervalued)54.9%

P(20%+ Up)46.6%

P(15%+ Down)37.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

54.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

17.4%/yr

±10.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-4.0%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K Analysis - Post-Southwestern Merger

First full year as Expand Energy post-Southwestern merger. Production nearly doubled to 2,622 Bcfe. Cash from ops $4.6B. Debt reduced $1.2B to ~$5B. Returned $865M to shareholders. Joined S&P 500. PV-...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Expand Energy (EXE) 10-K Review: Post-Merger Integration Strong; Debt Paydown and Operational Execution Impressive

Largest US independent NG producer post-CHK-SWN merger. Strong FY2025 execution: production +91%, price +52%, debt -.2B, reserves +91%. Reserve base PV-10 .4B vs implied market cap suggests meaningful...