EXPD

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.

IndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsNASDAQ

$157.99

+$0.80 (0.51%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$139.29

Upside-11.84%

Signal0

Market Cap$19.1B

52W Range$100.47–$167.19

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$100.91

Current Price$141.22

Upside / Down-28.5%

P(Undervalued)6.2%

P(20%+ Up)0.3%

P(15%+ Down)78.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

6.2% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

9.9%/yr

±7.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

9.3%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

EXPD 10-K: Ocean Freight Collapse Offsets AI-Driven Air Growth; Tariff Ruling Introduces 2026 Demand Uncertainty

EXPD 10-K shows bifurcated performance: airfreight strength (+9%) and customs brokerage surge (+13%) offset by ocean freight catastrophe (-11%, rates down 41-42% in Q4). Supreme Court tariff ruling Fe...