EXPE

Expedia Group, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$225.79

+$7.94 (3.52%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$283

Upside+25.34%

Signal12.67

Market Cap$29.0B

52W Range$134.25–$303.80

Next EarningsMay 7

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$176.57

Current Price$225.81

Upside / Down-21.8%

P(Undervalued)12.7%

P(20%+ Up)1.7%

P(15%+ Down)64.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

12.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

12.7%/yr

±6.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-4.2%/yr

±2.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

EXPE 10-K 2025: Lodging Growth, Advertising Momentum, AI Integration

FY2025 solid but decelerating growth (room nights +8% vs 9%). Advertising surge (+19%) and trivago turnaround (+33%) offset air pressure. Platform consolidation + One Key loyalty + AI gains are positi...