EXPE

Expedia Group, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$235.33

-$4.62 (-1.96%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$283.12

Upside+20.31%

Signal10.15

Market Cap$27.8B

52W Range$130.01–$303.80

Next EarningsMay 7

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$176.57

Current Price$225.81

Upside / Down-21.8%

P(Undervalued)12.7%

P(20%+ Up)1.7%

P(15%+ Down)64.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

12.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

12.7%/yr

±6.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-4.2%/yr

±2.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

EXPE 10-K 2025: Lodging Growth, Advertising Momentum, AI Integration

FY2025 solid but decelerating growth (room nights +8% vs 9%). Advertising surge (+19%) and trivago turnaround (+33%) offset air pressure. Platform consolidation + One Key loyalty + AI gains are positi...