EXR

Extra Space Storage Inc.

Real EstateREIT - IndustrialNASDAQ

$144.31

+$0.40 (0.28%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$152.85

Upside+5.92%

Signal3.55

Market Cap$30.6B

52W Range$121.03–$155.19

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$104.97

Current Price$128.96

Upside / Down-18.6%

P(Undervalued)13.2%

P(20%+ Up)1.3%

P(15%+ Down)59.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

13.2% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.0%/yr

±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

16.1%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

Extra Space Storage self-storage REIT; supply growth normalizing; occupancy recovering.

Bear Case

New supply pressure in key markets; consumer spending constraints on storage demand.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

EXR 2025 10-K: Occupancy Decline, Cost Inflation Pressuring Same-Store NOI

Extra Space's 2025 results show modest revenue growth (+3.3% property rental) masking deteriorating fundamentals. Same-store occupancy fell 70bps to 92.6% YE, driving NOI decline of -1.7% despite acqu...