F

Ford Motor Company
Consumer CyclicalAuto ManufacturersNASDAQ
$11.73
-$0.06 (-0.55%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$14.14
Upside+20.53%
Signal0
Market Cap$44.9B
52W Range$8.44–$14.80
Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$33.22
Current Price$11.37
Upside / Down+192.2%
P(Undervalued)100.0%
P(20%+ Up)99.4%
P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-7.0%/yr

±4.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

10.6%/yr

±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally.

Forward P/E6.1x
P/S0.2x
EPS (TTM)-$2.06
Analyst Target$14.14
Analyst Upside20.5%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
Ford 2025 10-K: Margin Compression in EV Transition

Ford 10-K shows volume decline amid unprofitable EV transition, elevated compliance costs (M/yr credits), deteriorating competitive position in China (1.3% share), and policy uncertainty creating stra...