Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-5.5%/yr
±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-4.9%/yr
±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockFinancial data infrastructure with near-100% client retention. DCF fair value vs current — deeply undervalued on fundamentals. March 31 earnings as upgrade catalyst: beat + maintained guidance = conv 8 and + target.
Decelerating organic growth (6% vs prior 8%+), margin compression from acquisitions, Bloomberg/Refinitiv/S&P competition intensifying, high valuation for a slow-growth data business.
Organic growth drops below 4%, enterprise client churn accelerates, earnings miss + guidance cut on March 31
Updated Mar 24
FDS earnings Tuesday — beat would trigger conv upgrade to 8 and add shares. RBC cut PT to $243 from $320 but still meaningful upside.
Q1 solid on organic growth (6%) and user/client additions, but operating margin compressed 200 bps YoY due to acquisition amortization and tech spending. IT controls weak but remediation in progress. ...