FDX

FedEx Corporation

IndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsNASDAQ

$411.75

+$24.18 (5.87%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$402.43

Upside-2.26%

Signal0

Market Cap$89.3B

52W Range$194.30–$392.86

Next EarningsJun 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:08 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$263.18

Current Price$343.97

Upside / Down-23.5%

P(Undervalued)19.1%

P(20%+ Up)6.0%

P(15%+ Down)62.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

19.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

5.4%/yr

±8.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

31.2%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

FDX Q2 FY2026 10-Q: DRIVE Delivering, Freight Noise, Spin-Off Catalyst Building

Federal Express segment is structurally inflecting — 200bp margin expansion to 7.6% in Q2 as DRIVE cost savings flow through. FedEx Freight results are polluted by $248M in spin-off costs (H1); ex-sep...