Stock at $350 is 30% above DCF FV $269. P(above current)=19.8% means model gives 80% odds of underperformance. DRIVE savings and Freight spin-off are real but appear priced in. No defined target price. DCF divergence cannot be justified — spin-off optionality does not bridge a $81 gap.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
19.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
5.4%/yr
±8.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
31.2%/yr
±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Federal Express segment is structurally inflecting — 200bp margin expansion to 7.6% in Q2 as DRIVE cost savings flow through. FedEx Freight results are polluted by $248M in spin-off costs (H1); ex-sep...