DCF P(above)=4.9%, FV=$18 vs price $50.7 — stock trading 2.8x DCF fair value. Even accounting for utility dividend value not in DCF, this is extreme. Above 200dma. Analyst target $52 (just 3% upside). PE=28.8x is high for a regulated utility. Prior target $37.50 suggests we already viewed it as overvalued. Lean avoid.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
5.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
22.3%/yr
±9.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
FE is a B+ market cap regulated utility with 6M+ customers, .3B distribution rate base, and .4B transmission rate base. Strong earnings foundation from cost-based regulation, but facing FERC ROE headw...