FFIV

F5, Inc.
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ
$383.45
-$0.25 (-0.07%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$310.30
Upside-19.08%
Signal0
Market Cap$16.5B
52W Range$223.76–$346
Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:08 PM65conviction-rescore
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$244.24
Current Price$281.98
Upside / Down-13.4%
P(Undervalued)17.0%
P(20%+ Up)1.8%
P(15%+ Down)44.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

17.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

9.2%/yr

±4.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.6%/yr

±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4
Conviction: unchanged
Q1 FY2026: Systems Momentum Masks Software Weakness; Cyber Incident Overhang

Q1 systems revenue surged 36.7% but software declined 8.1%; cyber incident costs .5M in Q1 with ongoing legal risks; balance sheet fortress-like; valuation reasonable at 16.8x forward; conviction hing...