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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
33.9%/yr
±3.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
29.9%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Sign in to unlockHousing market recovery unlocks the full FICO mortgage pricing cycle (2x'd in 2026). ROIC 44% well above WACC — capital-light compounder. B2B software scoring growing +29%. If housing recovers, multiple expands fast.
Housing suppressed by 7%+ mortgage rates — biggest near-term volume driver stalled. Price at ~,300+ already pricing in recovery. Regulatory risk on scoring monopoly (CFPB attention). Valuation premium stretched.
CFPB forced licensing competition; VantageScore gains material market share in mortgage originations; housing starts fall >20% sustained
Updated Mar 16
FICO controls a regulatory mandate for its score in US mortgage underwriting. FY2025: $1.99B revenue (+16%), Scores $1.17B (+27%). 2026 catalyst: FICO doubled mortgage scoring fees (~$4.95/score + $33...
FICO: Fortress Scores moat driving +29% B2B growth on housing recovery, but Software bifurcated (Platform +33%, Non-platform -8%) and leverage elevated at 7.0x. Antitrust litigation tail risk. Fair va...