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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
84.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-0.7%/yr
±4.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
6.9%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockPost-Worldpay pure-play fintech rerating: clean payments processor with recurring revenue, MACD bullish (+0.44 hist), DCF P(above)=73.9%, 32% analyst upside. Structural shift to digital payments + AI-enhanced fraud detection.
Below 200dma, macro headwinds in fintech, VIX elevated (Caution regime). RSI 46 neutral — no oversold bounce setup. Trade signal 0.271 (PASS). Sentiment fragile until market stabilizes.
Revenue growth stalls below 5%, margin compression from competition, macro recession hitting card volumes
Updated Mar 18
Pure-play financial infrastructure post-Worldpay divestiture. Core banking moat (95% of large US banks) with 5-10yr contracts. 9-10% EPS growth, 2% yield, 32% upside to fair value. Yellow flag: CTO de...
FIS CTO Firdaus Bhathena resigned March 18-20, 2026. FIS completed multi-currency senior notes offering totaling $6.8B + €1B — significant debt refinancing event. Mizuho Financial selected FIS Balance...
FIS closed a large multi-currency debt raise (.8B USD + B EUR senior notes) in early March 2026. Mizuho selected FIS Balance Sheet Manager — a concrete enterprise win. Neutral on thesis.
FY2025 10-K confirms solid execution: revenue $10.7B (+5.4%), Banking +6%, Capital Markets +7% at 51.8% EBITDA margins. Issuer Solutions acquisition ($7.7B debt, Jan 2026) funded by Worldpay 45% stake...
FIS integrating Issuer Solutions acquisition to enhance platform capabilities; leverage elevated post-acquisition; core banking and capital markets businesses stable; modernization execution critical.