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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
98.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
9.0%/yr
±4.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
13.1%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockOnly US-manufactured utility-scale solar (CdTe) = insulated from China tariffs that hurt all competitors. AI data center power demand is the secular growth driver — hyperscalers need multi-GW solar PPAs now.
IRA tax credit uncertainty under Trump is the biggest risk — ITC/PTC changes could reprice project economics overnight. Oil at $91 reduces urgency for energy transition narrative near-term. Rates elevated = project IRRs compressed.
IRA ITC/PTC eliminated or materially cut, 3+ years of hyperscaler capex pullback, new entrant achieves cost parity in CdTe
Updated Mar 12
FSLR delivered record module sales (17.5 GW, +24%) and record net sales ($5.2B) in FY2025. EPS $14.21. Net cash surged to $2.4B. The 50.1 GW backlog ($15B) provides exceptional forward visibility. Cri...
FY2025: Revenue +24% to $5.2B, Adj EBITDA $2.36B, diluted EPS $14.21, gross cash $2.9B. 2026 guidance: revenue $4.9-5.2B (flat), EBITDA $2.6-2.8B (+15-20%). At $191, FSLR trades at 6.7x 2026E EV/EBITD...
Revenue +24% to $5.2B, Net Income +18% to $1.53B, EPS $14.25. Gross margin compressed 40.6% (vs 44.2%) due to higher US production costs, warehousing, and tariffs, offset by Section 45X credits. Cash ...
First Solar 10-K FY2025 shows structural demand tailwinds from IRA and data center growth, offset by near-term execution risks (Series 7 quality, tariffs) and policy uncertainty post-2026. Differentia...