GIS

General Mills, Inc.

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$33.81

+$0.34 (1.02%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$47

Upside+39.01%

Signal19.5

Market Cap$19.8B

52W Range$35.64–$59.49

Next EarningsMar 18

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:10 AM4→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$52.94

Current Price$36.45

Upside / Down+45.2%

P(Undervalued)95.4%

P(20%+ Up)81.4%

P(15%+ Down)0.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

95.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-5.3%/yr

±3.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

1.8%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

General Mills cereal/pet food; pricing held; Blue Buffalo pet trade-down resilient.

Bear Case

Volume elasticity post-price hikes; private label share gains; pet food competition.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Q2 FY26: Volume collapse, margin compression, thesis in transition

GIS trading volume decline accelerating into negative price mix territory. Organic net sales -1% YoY with organic price/mix at -2%, suggesting pricing power waning and consumers pulling back. Operatin...