GNRC

Generac Holdings Inc.
IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ
$277.91
+$33.78 (12.16%)today
Conviction
6/ 10
Fair Value$245.41
Upside-11.69%
Signal0
Market Cap$12.1B
52W Range$99.50–$241.09
Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Apr 1, 2026, 4:06 AM76macro-brief
Mar 10, 2026, 2:04 PM67analysis
Mar 4, 2026, 6:19 AM56sec-read
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$112.99
Current Price$194.40
Upside / Down-41.9%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)96.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

19.1%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

37.5%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 12
Conviction: unchanged
GNRC FY2025 10-K: Data Center Pivot Underwrites Long-Term Thesis; Near-Term Clouded by Legal & Outage Softness

GNRC FY2025 revenue declined 2% to $4.21B, driven by a 6.8% residential drop (low outage activity, tough hurricane comp) offset by 4.9% C&I growth and 6% international growth. Adj EBITDA fell 9.3% to ...

sec_10kMar 12
Conviction: unchanged
GNRC FY2025 10-K: Full Financial Deep Dive — Conviction Upgrade to Buy at $202

FY2025 revenue $4.21B (-2% YoY) masks accelerating quality improvement: C&I +4.9% data center-driven, gross margin 38.3% (up 450bps from 2023), Adj EBITDA $718M at 17% margin. GAAP earnings badly dist...

sec_10kMar 11
Conviction: unchanged
GNRC FY2025 10-K: Data Center Thesis Intact, Legal Charges Mask Operational Quality

FY2025 revenue .21B (-2% YoY) — residential weak (-6.8%) on low-outage environment, C&I up 4.9% driven by data center and telecom. Gross margin 38.3% (-50bps). GAAP operating income collapsed (M vs M)...

analysisMar 10
Conviction: unchanged
Generac Q4 2025: Data Center Backlog Validates Power Infrastructure Thesis

GNRC missed Q4 on residential weakness but data center C&I segment +10% and backlog grew to M. 2026 guidance: mid-teens revenue growth, C&I +30%+. The outage environment trough is likely behind us. Da...

sec_10kMar 4
Conviction: unchanged
GNRC 2025 10-K: Data Center Opportunity Validates Grid Resiliency Thesis

Secular bull case intact. Data center supply-constrained TAM expansion + home standby 6.75% penetration whitespace. Tariff headwinds and OBBBA clean energy subsidy cliff create near-term margin pressu...