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0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
19.1%/yr
±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
37.5%/yr
±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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GNRC FY2025 revenue declined 2% to $4.21B, driven by a 6.8% residential drop (low outage activity, tough hurricane comp) offset by 4.9% C&I growth and 6% international growth. Adj EBITDA fell 9.3% to ...
FY2025 revenue $4.21B (-2% YoY) masks accelerating quality improvement: C&I +4.9% data center-driven, gross margin 38.3% (up 450bps from 2023), Adj EBITDA $718M at 17% margin. GAAP earnings badly dist...
FY2025 revenue .21B (-2% YoY) — residential weak (-6.8%) on low-outage environment, C&I up 4.9% driven by data center and telecom. Gross margin 38.3% (-50bps). GAAP operating income collapsed (M vs M)...
GNRC missed Q4 on residential weakness but data center C&I segment +10% and backlog grew to M. 2026 guidance: mid-teens revenue growth, C&I +30%+. The outage environment trough is likely behind us. Da...
Secular bull case intact. Data center supply-constrained TAM expansion + home standby 6.75% penetration whitespace. Tariff headwinds and OBBBA clean energy subsidy cliff create near-term margin pressu...