Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
12.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
16.6%/yr
±6.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
12.7%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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