GPN

Global Payments Inc.

IndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesNASDAQ

$75.51

+$3.04 (4.02%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$99.24

Upside+31.43%

Signal18.86

Market Cap$17.7B

52W Range$62.70–$90.96

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:07 PM5→6conviction-rescore

Mar 17, 2026, 5:05 AM6→5sec-read

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$74.57

Current Price$65.90

Upside / Down+13.2%

P(Undervalued)71.9%

P(20%+ Up)38.5%

P(15%+ Down)9.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

71.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.3%/yr

±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-2.9%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Global Payments merchant acquiring; Heartland SMB moat; software-embedded payments.

Bear Case

Fintech competition; merchant pricing pressure; integration execution post-EVO acquisition.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 17

Conviction: unchanged

GPN 10-K (2026-02-20): Worldpay Integration Execution Risk Elevated

Worldpay transformational deal complete but integration/transformation execution risk elevated above initial estimates. Conviction downgrade 6→5/10.

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Worldpay Acquisition Transforms GPN into Pure-Play Acquirer; Execution Risk High

GPN pivots to pure-play merchant acquirer via Worldpay deal. Strong market position + global reach, but integration risk elevated. Chargeback exposure increased materially. Debt service drag on FCF ne...