HCA

HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNASDAQ
$484.35
-$17.08 (-3.53%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$543.05
Upside+12.12%
Signal0
Market Cap$104.6B
52W Range$314.43–$556.52
Next EarningsApr 24

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$458.33
Current Price$471.85
Upside / Down-2.9%
P(Undervalued)46.1%
P(20%+ Up)22.3%
P(15%+ Down)33.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

46.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.7%/yr

±6.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

14.8%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States.

Trailing P/E16.5x
Forward P/E14.1x
P/S1.4x
EPS (TTM)$28.31
Analyst Target$543.05
Analyst Upside12.1%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1
Conviction: unchanged
HCA Healthcare 10-K FY2025: Volume Growth Masked by Looming Medicaid Policy Cliff

HCA posted strong FY2025 revenue of $75.6B (+7.1% YoY), driven by 2.7% admission growth and surging Medicaid supplemental payments ($6.2B vs $4.4B in 2023). However, the Federal Budget Act creates a m...