HCA

HCA Healthcare, Inc.

HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNASDAQ

$378.54

-$13.52 (-3.57%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$543.05

Upside+43.46%

Signal0

Market Cap$110.8B

52W Range$314.43–$556.52

Next EarningsApr 24

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$458.33

Current Price$471.85

Upside / Down-2.9%

P(Undervalued)46.1%

P(20%+ Up)22.3%

P(15%+ Down)33.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

46.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.7%/yr

±6.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

14.8%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States.

Trailing P/E17.2x

Forward P/E14.6x

P/S1.4x

EPS (TTM)$28.31

Analyst Target$543.05

Analyst Upside43.5%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

HCA Healthcare 10-K FY2025: Volume Growth Masked by Looming Medicaid Policy Cliff

HCA posted strong FY2025 revenue of $75.6B (+7.1% YoY), driven by 2.7% admission growth and surging Medicaid supplemental payments ($6.2B vs $4.4B in 2023). However, the Federal Budget Act creates a m...