Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
46.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
6.7%/yr
±6.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
14.8%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States.
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HCA posted strong FY2025 revenue of $75.6B (+7.1% YoY), driven by 2.7% admission growth and surging Medicaid supplemental payments ($6.2B vs $4.4B in 2023). However, the Federal Budget Act creates a m...