HD

The Home Depot, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalHome Improvement RetailNASDAQ

$317.14

+$3.40 (1.07%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$408.18

Upside+13.30%

Signal6.65

Market Cap$317.0B

52W Range$316.90–$426.75

Next EarningsMay 19

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$162.67

Current Price$321.65

Upside / Down-49.4%

P(Undervalued)0.1%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)96.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.3%/yr

±7.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

19.9%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

Home Depot housing turnover recovery catalyst; Pro contractor channel sticky; repair/remodel durable.

Bear Case

Housing affordability crisis suppressing turnover; tariff cost pass-through risk; consumer spending fatigue.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

HD Q3 FY2025 10-Q + FY2025 Full Year Results (8-K Feb 24, 2026)

FY2025 adj EPS $14.69 (-3.6% YoY). Core comparable sales +0.3% (flat). SRS+GMS acquisitions add revenue but compress margins. Adjusted operating margin 13.1% (down from 13.8%). FY2026 guided flat-to-+...

sec_10qFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

HD Q3 FY2025 10-Q: Flat Comps, Acquisition Drag, Housing Lock-In Persists

HD's core retail business is treading water (+0.2% comps Q3, +0.3% YTD) while management bets big on Pro distribution via SRS (B, Jun-24) and GMS (.1B, Sep-25). Revenue growth is acquisition-fueled, n...