No conviction changes recorded
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
16.3%/yr
±7.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
19.9%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
FY2025 adj EPS $14.69 (-3.6% YoY). Core comparable sales +0.3% (flat). SRS+GMS acquisitions add revenue but compress margins. Adjusted operating margin 13.1% (down from 13.8%). FY2026 guided flat-to-+...
HD's core retail business is treading water (+0.2% comps Q3, +0.3% YTD) while management bets big on Pro distribution via SRS (B, Jun-24) and GMS (.1B, Sep-25). Revenue growth is acquisition-fueled, n...