HII

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$308.17

-$9.10 (-2.95%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$402.45

Upside+30.59%

Signal18.35

Market Cap$15.5B

52W Range$182.79–$460

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$421.64

Current Price$381.79

Upside / Down+10.4%

P(Undervalued)61.8%

P(20%+ Up)38.8%

P(15%+ Down)22.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

61.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

3.6%/yr

±7.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

10.5%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

HII FY2025: Strong shipbuilding backlog, labor/inflation headwinds, positive CVN/submarine positioning

HII dominates U.S. nuclear shipbuilding (carriers, subs) with sole-source RCOH and amphibious assault capabilities. Strong backlog (B+ overage) backed by FY2026 B shipbuilding authorization. Key risks...