HOLX

Hologic, Inc.

HealthcareMedical Instruments & SuppliesNASDAQ

$76.01

+$0 (0.00%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$76.67

Upside+0.86%

Signal0.43

Market Cap$17.0B

52W Range$51.90–$76.07

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:09 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$58.12

Current Price$75.67

Upside / Down-23.2%

P(Undervalued)9.4%

P(20%+ Up)1.1%

P(15%+ Down)69.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

9.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.3%/yr

±4.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

1.7%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Hologic women's health; surgical/diagnostics diversified; breast health imaging cycle.

Bear Case

Pap test volume decline offset by newer tests; international FX headwinds.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

HOLX Q1 FY26: Diagnostics Deceleration, Brevera Recall Offset GYN Surgical Growth

Q1 FY26 revenues flat-ish (+2.5% YoY) at ,047.8M. Diagnostics down 1.3% (COVID normalization, assay pressures). Breast Health +1.8% but headwind from Brevera 9G needle stop-ship (4.7% of segment). GYN...