HPQ

HP Inc.

TechnologyComputer HardwareNASDAQ

$27.04

+$6.35 (23.47%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$19.43

Upside-28.14%

Signal0

Market Cap$17.1B

52W Range$17.56–$29.55

Next EarningsMay 27

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:09 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$122.72

Current Price$19.44

Upside / Down+531.3%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.9%/yr

±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-7.0%/yr

±2.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Revenue and FCF growth expectations are aligned

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Bull Case

HP Inc personal systems/printing; commercial PC refresh cycle with AI PCs; 3D printing optionality.

Bear Case

Printing secular decline; PC market commoditization; Xerox competition in commercial printing.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

HPQ Q1 FY2026: Cost headwinds, Printing weakness, AI tailwinds in Personal Systems

HPQ Q1 FY2026 shows revenue growth (+6.9%) offset by 1.4pp gross margin compression from commodity inflation and tariffs. Personal Systems strong (+11.1%) on PC refresh; Printing weak (-2.2%). Fiscal ...