HSIC

Henry Schein, Inc.
HealthcareMedical DistributionNASDAQ
$76.58
+$3.21 (4.19%)today
Conviction
8/ 10
Fair Value$95
Upside+24.05%
Signal19.24
Market Cap$8.9B
52W Range$61.95–$89.29
Next EarningsMay 4

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 7:15 AM78conviction-rescore
Mar 17, 2026, 5:07 AM67sec-read
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$197.87
Current Price$72.10
Upside / Down+174.4%
P(Undervalued)100.0%
P(20%+ Up)98.9%
P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-7.2%/yr

±3.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

7.8%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Conv 8. KKR partnership = named catalyst (>$200M operating income improvement). DCF P(above)=92.2%, FV=$145 vs $74 = 95% upside (exceptional). Dental/medical specialty mix with demographic tailwind (45+ population +10% through 2035). Above 200dma.

Bear Case

MACD negative (-0.72), RSI 39 trending down, 5-day momentum -1.9%. Below 50dma despite being above 200dma. Partner integration risk with KKR.

Thesis Breakers

KKR partnership falls through, dental market consolidation disrupts distribution economics, GPO pricing pressure

Updated Mar 18

Research Feed

newsMar 30
Conviction: unchanged
HSIC: Strong Q4 — Net Sales +7.7%, Specialty Products +14.6%; Short Interest Up 28.9%

Henry Schein Q4 FY2025: total net sales +7.7% YoY with Global Specialty Products up 14.6%, signaling post-cyberattack recovery strengthening. Contrarian flag: short interest up 28.9% in March. Stock a...

sec_10kMar 17
Conviction: unchanged
HSIC FY2025 10-K: Execution Strong, Margin Pressure Transitory

Filed 2026-02-24. Core distribution 3-4% growth on track. Specialty/Tech accelerating (11.7% + 5.1% of sales). FY guidance raised to .88-.96 EPS (3-4% growth). KKR partnership announced with $200M+ op...

sec_10kMar 4
Conviction: unchanged
HSIC 10-K: Mixed signals on core distribution, Specialty/Tech growth accelerating

HSIC 10-K: Mature distribution leader with favorable demographics and cost-containment tailwinds. Core dental distribution under mix pressure; specialty products and technology segment growth accelera...