HUM

Humana Inc.

HealthcareHealthcare PlansNASDAQ

$305.42

+$1.75 (0.57%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$212

Upside-30.59%

Signal0

Market Cap$23.9B

52W Range$163.11–$315.35

Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:11 AM4→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$5075.29

Current Price$169.09

Upside / Down+2901.5%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

1.0%/yr

±12.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

7.1%/yr

±3.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

HUM FY2025 10-K: Medicare Concentration Risk Amid Star Rating Decline

HUM faces material headwinds from 2025 Star Rating decline (lawsuit outcome pending Fifth Circuit appeal), expanding RADV audit exposure for PY2018-2024, and Florida Medicare concentration (14% of rev...