Star Rating decline + RADV audit creates near-term earnings risk not captured in DCF FV $627 (P(above)=88.4%). 24% analyst upside. Upgrading from 4: Medicaid/Medicare headwinds increasingly baked in at $170, PE 17x is not stretched for managed care. Not buying yet — thesis recovery not confirmed.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
1.0%/yr
±12.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
7.1%/yr
±3.5% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
HUM faces material headwinds from 2025 Star Rating decline (lawsuit outcome pending Fifth Circuit appeal), expanding RADV audit exposure for PY2018-2024, and Florida Medicare concentration (14% of rev...