HWM

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$258.25

-$1.63 (-0.63%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$277.52

Upside+7.46%

Signal0

Market Cap$101.3B

52W Range$112.08–$267.31

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$54.25

Current Price$227.90

Upside / Down-76.2%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

38.1%/yr

±2.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

45.1%/yr

±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Trailing P/E63.5x

Forward P/E42.7x

P/S11.5x

EPS (TTM)$3.70

Analyst Target$277.52

Analyst Upside7.5%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

HWM FY2025 10-K: Aerospace Compounding Machine at Peak Valuation

HWM delivered a spectacular FY2025: .25B revenue (+11%), net income .51B (+31%), Adj. EBITDA .51B (+25%). COGS margin improved 310bps in one year. Operating cash flow surged 45% to .88B. All four segm...