IBM

International Business Machines Corporation

TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesNASDAQ

$297.80

+$52.77 (17.72%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$307.48

Upside+3.25%

Signal2.27

Market Cap$229.6B

52W Range$220.72–$324.90

Next EarningsApr 22

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$262.95

Current Price$236.34

Upside / Down+11.3%

P(Undervalued)67.7%

P(20%+ Up)37.6%

P(15%+ Down)13.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

67.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

2.5%/yr

±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

6.2%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 19

Conviction: unchanged

IBM: $12.5B AI Bookings + Confluent Closes Today — Enterprise AI Middleware Play Crystallizing

IBM's $11B Confluent acquisition closes today (March 19, 2026), adding real-time data streaming to Watsonx.data — creating the enterprise AI data layer for agentic AI workloads. Q4 2025: $19.69B reven...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

IBM FY2025 10-K: Software Acceleration + FCF Record, Offset by Consulting Deceleration and Debt Load

IBM delivered a strong FY2025 with .5B revenue (+7.6% YoY), record free cash flow of .7B (+B YoY), and Q4 net income surging 93% to .6B. Software (+11%) and Infrastructure (+12%, z17 mainframe cycle) ...