Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
24.7%/yr
±5.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
18.1%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Illumina is the dominant genomics sequencing platform (NovaSeq X), executing a clinical pivot that drove Q4 2025 EPS beat ($1.35 vs $1.23 est) and revenue beat ($1.16B vs $1.10B est). Clinical consuma...