INCY

Incyte Corporation

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$96.74

-$0.67 (-0.69%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$107.27

Upside+10.89%

Signal7.62

Market Cap$19.1B

52W Range$55.11–$112.29

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 1:09 PM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$151.14

Current Price$90.30

Upside / Down+67.4%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)97.7%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-1.1%/yr

±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-8.3%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

INCY 10-K FY2025 Analysis: Bifurcated Transition — JAKAFI Decline & Pipeline Maturation

INCY faces 2028 JAKAFI patent cliff but strong new product launches (MONJUVI FL, ZYNYZ SCAC, NIKTIMVO) and advanced pipeline (povorcitinib, INCA033989, KRASG12D inhibitors) offer growth transition. Yv...